1. Provide your own example of an inductively strong (forceful) argument and an inductively weak argument. Describe why your first argument is strong and your second argument is weak.
Your response must be at least 75 words in length.
2. The author of our textbook notes the problem of induction can help us become better thinkers by recognizing that many things we take for granted as true, may not be. For example, we take it for granted that every time we turn our key in our car’s ignition, the car will turn on. If, one day, our car does not turn on, the belief our car will always turn on is falsified (shown to be false). Describe an example of a belief that you take for granted every day. Explain how this belief is based on your, more general, belief that the future will be like the past. In other words, use the problem of induction in your explanation. Lastly, provide a scenario that falsifies your belief. In other words, provide a scenario that shows that your belief is false. For example, my belief that my car will always turn on was falsified this morning by the fact that my car would just not start. Notice that “our car will always turn on” is a generalization based on the fact that our car has always turned on (or turned on most of the time). Make sure the belief you choose to write about is a generalization as well.
Your response must be at least 75 words in length.
PHI 1301, Critical Thinking 1
Course Learning Outcomes for Unit IV
Upon completion of this unit, students should be able to:
1. Demonstrate how evidence is used to support a viewpoint.
1.1 Indicate concepts related to inductive arguments.
3. Recognize well-reasoned, logical arguments.
3.1 Identify the strength or weakness of inductive reasoning.
4. Relate good reasoning to effective thinking.
4.1 Detect problems associated with inductive reasoning.
Course/Unit
Learning Outcomes
Learning Activity
1.1
Unit Lesson
Chapter 4
Unit IV Video
Unit IV Assessment
3.1
Unit Lesson
Chapter 4
Unit IV Video
Unit IV Assessment
4.1
Unit Lesson
Chapter 4
Unit IV Video
Unit IV Assessment
Required Unit Resources
Chapter 4: Reasoning With Observation and Uncertainty
In order to access the following resource, click the link below.
Unit IV Video
A transcript and closed captioning are available once you access the video.
Unit Lesson
In Unit III, we learned about deductive arguments and that if certain premises are true (or are assumed true)
and are well reasoned (valid), a conclusion follows necessarily. Some aspects of our daily reasoning work this
way, that is, deductively. Ultimately, we deal with a lot of uncertainty, whereby even if we know certain
premises are true, the conclusion does not necessarily follow. Consider the following argument:
UNIT IV STUDY GUIDE
Inductive Reasoning
https://c24.page/gnsv2cpta8rbktp25c6uqx9tde
PHI 1301, Critical Thinking 2
UNIT x STUDY GUIDE
Title
I am quite certain that I have used my key to unlock my front door every time I returned home for the last 15
years. Each time I have done so, I have been able to open my front door. But, even if these premises are
true, will my conclusion necessarily follow? The conclusion is I will be able to open my front door when I get
home. Can I be 100% certain this conclusion will follow? What happens if the lock jams, and I am unable to
open the front door? Or, what happens if someone locks the front door from the inside so I cannot open the
front door and go inside my house? Both of these are real possibilities. Because these possibilities are likely
(especially the possibility that the lock can jam), I cannot reason with certainty my conclusion will follow. In
other words, I cannot logically or necessarily conclude that I will be able to open the front door. In this case,
my conclusion is contingent. It is contingent on whether I will be able to open my front door. It is a matter of
chance and not logical necessity that I will be able to open my front door. Also, since I want to open my front
door, it is also a matter of good luck if I do succeed in opening it. My conclusion does not follow logically or
necessarily because in this case, I am engaged in an uncertainty about the future, an uncertainty as to
whether my door will open. Because it does not follow logically or necessarily, I am engaged in inductive
thinking or inductive reasoning. Sometimes, inductive reasoning is also referred to as ampliative reasoning,
and this is because there is a sense that when we engage in inductive reasoning we are amplifying our
premises by going beyond what our premises give us. After we have a good understanding of inductive
reasoning, it is easy to see how a vast majority of our everyday reasoning is inductive. This implies that a lot
of our reasoning deals with uncertainties. Understanding that a vast majority of our reasoning is inductive is
an effective tool for critical thinking. It allows us to think about how we draw conclusions and think about the
fact that we should not feel too certain about our conclusions.
Since our conclusions are likely or not likely, this implies that when we deal with inductive reasoning, we are
dealing with degrees of certainty. Thus, it is very important to understand that in inductive reasoning, our
conclusions can be ranked. As you may recall with deductive reasoning, our conclusions either follow logically
or do not follow logically. With inductive reasoning, our conclusions are not so black and white. When we
engage in inductive reasoning, our conclusions are more or less likely. In some cases, our conclusions may
even be 50-50—that is, there may be a 50% chance that the conclusion will follow. This means induction
deals with probabilities, which is just another way of saying we are dealing with chance and uncertainties.
Once we understand these probabilities can be ranked, we have a deeper understanding of induction.
Consider the following arguments A, B, and C:
For the last 15 years, I have used my key to unlock the front door every time I
have returned home. Every time I unlock my front door, I am able to open the
front door. I am on my way home now, and I will unlock my front door.
Therefore, I will be able to open my front door when I get home.
A. Human beings have never traveled to Mars. Space travel technology is getting better. Thus,
human beings are likely to travel to Mars within the next 1,000 years.
B. Human beings have never traveled to Mars. Space travel technology is getting better. Thus,
human beings are likely to travel to Mars tomorrow.
C. Human beings have never traveled to Mars. Space travel technology is getting better. Thus,
human beings are likely to travel to Mars within the next 100 years.
PHI 1301, Critical Thinking 3
UNIT x STUDY GUIDE
Title
First, let us be clear by stating that travel in the arguments above means travel by at least one live human
body and not just travel by vessels. In ranking these arguments, we should ask ourselves which conclusion is
most likely and which conclusion is least likely? We should do this because when it comes to space travel we
know we are dealing with chance, probability, and contingency. Any accident or technical malfunction(s) can
set back missions having to do with space travel. We can easily see A is the most likely conclusion. It is
reasonable to expect human beings to travel to Mars within the next 1,000 years. Why? We have already had
small vessels land on Mars and take photographs. Thus, the prospect of human beings travelling there is
likely and 1,000 years seems to give us enough time, all things being equal. We can also easily see B is the
least likely. Yes, it is true space travel technology is getting better, but the chances of humans travelling to
Mars tomorrow are very low. Ranking A and B as the most likely and the least likely, respectively, places C in
the middle. It is likely human beings will travel to Mars within the next 50 years, but it is much more likely it will
happen within the next 1,000 years, and this is why A is the stronger and higher ranked of all the arguments.
We can also see the relationship between B and C. It is more likely human beings will travel to Mars within
the next 100 years than it is they will travel to Mars tomorrow. This example should demonstrate inductive
arguments are either strong or weak, and even the weak ones can be ranked as either more weak or less
weak. Thus, this example should give us a good sense of inductive strength or inductive force. An argument
is inductively forceful or inductively strong if the conclusion is very likely to happen. This is why argument A,
above, is the most forceful argument out of all three. This also implies that even though we are dealing with
uncertainties (when it comes to induction), we can have good reason (that is, inductive strength) to believe
certain conclusions will be true. This, however, raises a philosophical puzzle: Can we ever be certain the
future will be like the past?
Human beings tend to have a strong desire for certainty. It gives us comfort, and we want things to be
definitively true, but, as we have seen, induction shows us that most of the time we are dealing or reasoning
with uncertainties. The most an inductive argument can accomplish is a conclusion, which is very likely to
follow. We might not think about it much, but making predictions is a way of drawing inductive conclusions.
We make predictions every day at a subconscious level. In other words, we are not consciously aware we
are making these predictions. When I place my key inside the doorknob, there is an important sense in
which I am expecting, that is predicting, the key will turn and I will be able to open the door. But can I always
be certain the key will turn? In other words, will the future be like the past? Inductive reasoning seems to
imply it will not always be because there is always one chance the key will jam. This is a good way to
understand what philosophers call the problem of induction. Simply put, the problem of induction is a question
about the certainty of future events. Because most of the time, things do happen the way they have in the
past, and we tend to believe the future will always be like the past, but considering the uncertainties we
encounter every day, there is little reason to believe inductive conclusions will always be true. Let’s revisit our
previous argument to have a deeper understanding of why we cannot be guaranteed an inductive conclusion
will follow:
For the last 15 years, I have used my key to unlock the front door every time I have returned home. Every
time I unlock my front door, I am able to open the front door. I am on my way home now, and I will unlock my
front door. Therefore, I will be able to open my front door when I get home.
Notice that this argument contains a generalization. A generalization is an assertion made about a certain
number of samples. In this case, the generalization is made based on past events (that is, the past events are
the samples). What is the generalization? The generalization is—Every time I unlock my front door, I am able
to open the front door. We can see that we believe this generalization to be true because we always act as if
we will be able to open the door. This belief is subconscious because we do not always (or perhaps never)
think about this belief—it never explicitly comes to mind. Given the problem of induction, we must conclude
this belief cannot always be true. In other words, we must entertain doubt or skepticism about this belief.
Why? It is very possible that in one of our future experiences this belief will be falsified. Falsification simply
means we can experience scenarios where what we previously believed to be true will be shown to be false.
If one day, the knob does not turn or I cannot open the front door, the generalization—Every time I unlock my
front door, I am able to open the front door—will be false. The fact this falsification is possible shows us we
must be skeptical about generalizations we subconsciously draw on an everyday basis.
PHI 1301, Critical Thinking 4
UNIT x STUDY GUIDE
Title
Learning Activities (Nongraded)
Nongraded Learning Activities are provided to aid students in their course of study. You do not have to submit
them. If you have questions, contact your instructor for further guidance and information.
The Unit IV Practice Questions are a fantastic resource for practicing the material in this unit. It is
recommended that you complete these before attempting the unit assessment. An answer key is provided at
the end of the questions.
https://online.columbiasouthern.edu/bbcswebdav/xid-128512557_1